Within the final 6 – 12 months, a lot of the world’s main auto producers have introduced timelines for at the least partial electrification of their vary; even holdouts like Toyota and Ford have abruptly jumped onto the EV bandwagon, lest they create their own ‘Kodak moment’.
Most of my articles on newly introduced electrical car (EV) fashions are intentionally centered on these arriving (or quickly to be) – both someplace the world or right here in Australia.
I normally keep away from fashions nonetheless in design and/or introduced as ‘to return in X years’ time’ as, on the subject of EVs, we’ve change into accustomed to even three month timelines blowing out to eighteen and past. (Suppose virtually each mannequin EV ever to return to Australia, not to mention their replace variations!)
Nonetheless, the EV market is hotting up and auto producers can now not afford the posh of constructing bulletins to pacify the general public clamour for them, after which sit on their palms while promoting excessive revenue (and extremely polluting) SUVs and diesel 4WD utes – lest their rivals beat them to the market.
Beneath is a choice of the approaching EVs and EV plans of most of the world’s well-known auto producer names, plus these of some newcomers hoping to grab a share of the EV prize.
Observe that it’s a choice solely; a full wrap-up of the present world EV market is lastly past the scope of a single article!
VW, because of a possible ‘near-death’ expertise over the Dieselgate scandal, have dedicated actually billions (most likely nicely north of US$100 billion by now) to reinvent themselves as a serious producer of all-electric BEVs (Battery Electrical Autos) throughout all their marques1.
The primary VW BEV mannequin primarily based on the brand new MEB EV platform (the ID.three) is now in pre-production with automobiles quietly rolling off the production line to check the methods and the construct high quality.
When it hits the market in mid-2020, it’s going to even be in numbers (in contrast to numerous EVs coming to market) as VW has closely invested in EV manufacture and battery provide contracts.
Their different marques are additionally nicely positioned on the BEV bandwagon too: Porsche are releasing the Taycan later this yr, Audi has simply launched the e-tron with extra BEV fashions to return quickly; SEAT just lately introduced six new electrical and hybrid fashions to return (beginning 2023); and Skoda could have a BEV coming to market this yr and one other in 2021, plus a number of Plug-in Hybrid Electrical Autos (PHEVs).
Even Bentley has plans for a BEV by 2025 and can hybridise all its fashions by 2023.
General, by 2025 the VW group plans to have round 70 all-electric fashions in the marketplace and to promote 22 million BEVs over the following 10 years.
PSA group2 (Peugeot, Citroen, Vauxhall and Opel)
A number of fashions are about to be launched from this group: Peugeot’s e-208 shall be launched in Europe late this yr, plus its associated sibling the e-2008 CUV. Additionally primarily based on the e-CMP (Frequent Modular Platform) structure would be the Citroen DS three Crossback (on account of start deliveries in January 2020) and the Vauxhall Corsa-e.
All are more likely to share the identical 50kWh battery and 100kW motor – however full specs for the Corsa-e are but to be launched (though pre-order books for all of those have already opened).
Famed (or notorious) for beginning after which stopping the BEV revolution within the 1990’s with their EV1, they’re nonetheless maintaining with an on-again/off-again EV technique.
After crushing as most of the EV1s as they might reclaim of the 1100 or in order that had been constructed, GM returned to EV constructing with the a lot acclaimed (if overpriced) Volt PHEV in 2011, solely to discontinue all PHEV manufacturing in early 2019.
In addition they returned to full BEV manufacturing with the confusingly named ‘Bolt’ in 2016. While the Bolt continues to be in manufacturing, there isn’t any right-hand drive model and GM construct lower than 30,000 of them a yr. GM has introduced plans to construct a brand new vary of BEVs underneath their Cadillac model – however no dates or fashions have been introduced.
Their GMC model has additionally been reported to have intentions to construct electrical SUVs and pickups – however once more, no dates, and even mannequin design drawings, have been launched. A hearsay can be going across the auto trade that an all-electric Chevrolet Camaro is being designed.
Lotus just lately introduced their new full electrical Evija for manufacturing in 2020. 2000 metric horsepower, 400km vary and a prime pace of 320km/hr – will probably be a real electrical ‘hypercar’.
The Evija will even be the primary mannequin from Lotus to be produced with the backing of its new dad or mum firm (and Chinese language automotive big) Geely – maybe pointing in direction of a extra electric-oriented future route for the model.
Till just lately, Ford have been steadily dropping all fashions besides giant, gas guzzling (and extremely worthwhile) SUVs and pickups. As such, it was wanting like turning into probably the most flat-footed producer for catching up when the EV momentum actually hit its straps.
Nonetheless so much can change in six months: Ford early this yr invested $US500 million within the start-up EV pickup and SUV producer Rivian, and has extra just lately achieved a take care of VW to share the MEB platform for constructing electrical Fords, in addition to show off a prototype all-electric F-150.
So no precise manufacturing fashions but, however they’ve at the least seen that EVs are right here to remain!
Early to undertake hybrid expertise with the primary Honda perception in 1999 – they’ve been sluggish to the plug-in hybrid or full electrical video games. That has modified with the Readability full-electric just lately turning into accessible alongside its FCEV (Gas-Cell EV) and PHEV variations.
Nonetheless the readability is barely offered in restricted numbers in restricted markets. Quickly to return is the Honda City EV. A metropolis automotive with reportedly a 320 km vary, it’s a cute wanting car! Nonetheless it too shall be offered in restricted markets – and sure solely in Europe.
Lengthy a supporter of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and fuel-cell EV applied sciences over full battery electrical EVs, they’ve just lately begun altering their tune to speak about introducing full BEVs into their line-up, beginning 2020 with offers minimize with each BYD and Subaru.
No fashions or specs have been launched but – however it’s a signal of the instances that Toyota are even speaking full battery electrical in any respect.
Early to the total BEV market in late 2010 with the Leaf – they’ve developed solely slowly since then with the end result that many different producers have nicely overtaken what was the primary ground-up, all-electric automotive from a mass producer.
The present Leaf three.SERO e+ with its 63kWh battery is a severe contender on worth and specs towards the Kona and others, however the others have been there some time, and the brand new Leaf is barely actually catching up.
Alongside the e-NV 200 van/folks mover and the approaching Infinity QX Inspiration, Nissan do appear to have let the ball drop considerably since they took the preliminary lead with the primary Leaf.
Since 2013, their sole passenger car mannequin has been the Zoe. It has seen a sequence of battery and motor upgrades through the years, and a brand new mannequin with a bigger battery, motor and (lastly) DC charging is due in early 2020.
Whether or not we see the brand new one in Australia is up within the air although – thus far solely the 2017 mannequin is out there right here with not one of the abroad motor improve fashions since 2017 being accessible.
However, Renault do have two city supply vans accessible in Europe, with extra to return. Nonetheless none include DC fast-charging or bigger batteries, or will accomplish that within the foreseeable future. Good for native European deliveries – they’re most likely unsuitable for the longer ranges wanted right here in Australia.
BMW have proven a considerably confused method to EVs. Having launched the technologically superior i3 in BEV and PHEV variations in 2014, in addition to the i8 PHEV, they’ve flip-flopped as to what to do subsequent.
Typically it’s a brand new i3, then an finish of the i3 in favour of electrifying their normal vary, then perhaps a brand new mannequin i3 and expanded vary of i-cars in any case. At present, it’s anticipated that an all-new i4 will change into accessible in 2021 with a reported vary of 640km.
Nonetheless, when you suppose that’s complicated, latest pronouncements from the board are much more so.
Klaus Frölich, the 58-year-old BMW board member accountable for improvement has stated in several boards just lately, phrases to the impact of: ‘EVs won’t ever equal the costs of equal typical vehicles’ (credible analysists have put the date for worth parity as 2024, after which EVs will change into cheaper that their ICE equivalents) and ‘Nobody wants to buy EVs, that’s why we can’t sell them’.
(Regardless of Tesla, Hyundai and all the opposite auto producers that construct EVs with the specs the general public need having very lengthy ready lists for theirs – even at present EV costs!)
A quiet achiever during the last 10 years – it exploded into public consciousness a few years in the past with the discharge of full working pre-production variations of the R1T pickup and R1S SUV.
There’s now some severe cash being thrown on the firm; solely this yr Amazon invested US$700 million and Ford US$500 million in Rivian.
Rivian chief engineer, Brian Gase, has acknowledged that they are going to start exports to Australia quickly after manufacturing within the US begins. Rivian expects to start deliveries in 2021.
So what has the market chief (if not driver) received up their sleeve over the following three – 5 years to maintain up with the slew of BEVs described above coming? Nicely they aren’t sitting on their palms. Within the short-term, Mannequin three manufacturing capability is increasing quickly, with Tesla on course to promote 350 – 400,000 vehicles in 2019.
New manufacturing services that can double Mannequin three manufacturing capability are to return on-line in China later this yr, and a brand new manufacturing line for the Mannequin Y is to open subsequent yr of their US Fremont manufacturing facility.
So for 2020, we’ll see the already revealed Mannequin Y cross-over and the second era Roadster, in addition to the primary Tesla ‘Semi-Vehicles’.
Touted to be smaller and extra primary than the Mannequin three, if it comes about will probably be a direct competitor to the VW ID sequence in addition to the approaching choices from Peugeot, Vauxhall and the like. (Lastly, some within-segment competitors!)
EVs in Australia
And at last – what of those will we see in Australia? Definitely the Teslas, the Rivians and possibly the VW ID sequence at some stage, plus the Nissan three.ZERO e+ (additionally at some stage). The brand new Zoe is a attainable, as are the BMWs – however the remaining are within the uncertain class.
GM now not have a right-hand drive subsidiary in Vauxhall anymore, so the second era Bolt or the Cadillac EVs are unlikely right here; and all of the others have larger and simpler markets elsewhere that provide incentives and help for the EV transition, in contrast to Australia.
Extra possible is that we’ll see Australia change into the dumping floor for large, inefficient gas guzzlers as they’re phased out in every single place else and choices change into ever extra restricted as ICE fashions one-by-one die. However, when the remainder of the world stops making ICE automobiles – we must always hopefully see a full vary of EVs arrive then.
- The VW automotive marques being: VW, Porsche, Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, SEAT, and Škoda
- If you’re questioning why I lump these 4 collectively: Peugeot and Citroen are operated collectively underneath their dad or mum firm PSA, and GM offered their European arm comprising of Vauxhall and Opel to PSA in 2017.